Climate Change Impacts in El Salvador

As our climate changes at such a rapid rate, it causes changes and reactions within our environment and there are very many impacts that climate change could affect in the near future. Glaciers and permafrost may melt, rivers will flood while others run dry, the coast will erode, ecosystems will be destroyed when they can no longer survive or are destroyed by forest fires, fish populations will continue to decline, and food production will suffer having a great affect on our economies and health. El Salvador is in a rather good placement on the globe to be unaffected by most of these occurrences, but the climate will still be impacted and because of globalization ever country will suffer from the way others are affected. Specifically El Salvador is expected to experience more extreme precipitation causing flooding and erosion, a decrease in food production and quality, and spread of vector-borne diseases which are diseases spread through the insects that bite us. El Salvador will have plenty to deal with as the climate changes, but through government planning and warning systems, the effects can be managed.



The next article I read discussing this topic focused on the storm cells forming over the Caribbean but the drying of much of Central America. During this climate change the pacific ocean boarding El Salvador is expected to increase in heat as the average temperature of the earth rises with it. With the hotter temperatures in this area the dry season is expected to become even dryer and longer while the storms of the wet season are expected to become more intense. This dry weather will cause the climate of the area to become less tropic and more desert like. The weather of Central America is predicted to get more extreme which will not benefit the people and organisms living here.


In El Salvador the immediate danger of climate change especially the change in temperature and precipitation is considered inevitable at the way we are moving with high confidence. These projects predict that the effects will be seen by 2100, which means it could even happen in our lifetime. Changes in the streamflow and water availability have already been seen and if climate change continues as predicted this will have a major impact on water supplies of cities, hydroelectric plants, and agriculture. The poverty and political instability of Central and South America contributes to lack of environmental care or concern. Although things have been getting better in recent years, deforestation is still killing ecosystems and contributing green house gases to the atmosphere while limiting the earths ability to absorb and handle these chemicals. With a 45% poverty level many turn to destroying forests for farm land and are not concerned with negative long term effects of this practice. On top of this the overall health of the area will continue to decline along with this climate change. Polutants in the air will contribute to respiratory and heart problems and water and insect borne diseases will begin to increase and spread. With some adaptation and conservation this can be limited or stopped, but it needs to be a world wide effort or in just a few years the climate could become much worse.

The most interesting aspect of the article about climate change in Central and South America is how it will affect the supply of water and its distribution. Water is an important part any living persons life, but climate change is predicted to have a major effect of the freshwater of this region. The water is so important to the region, not only because people need it to survive and it is essential to growing crops, but it is also a major supplier of energy to the area. 60% or the regions electricity comes from hydropower generation. With a decrease in water supply due to climate changes effect on precipitation, not only will people be thirsty and hungry but they won't have electricity either. Water supplies in the major rivers of El Salvador, the Rio Grande and the Lempa River, are expected to drop 70% and 24% respectively. While the population continues to increase water will continue to decrease and this will have more and more of a harsh impact on the region. Without water what would we do? That is why water is such an important part to examine and so interesting when comparing effects of climate change.

Severe Weather in El Salvador

The formation of a Tornado is rather simple with the right conditions. The first necessary condition is wind sheer to create a stronger wind aloft while the wind on the ground moves more slowly. This creates a tumbling effect that grows strong because of the wind sheer and friction. This horizontal rotation of air next needs to meet an updraft to be brought to create the vertical mesocyclone. Next the mesocyclone develops in the updraft of a thunderstorm until it descends to the ground forming a tornado.

In the United States, tornadoes usually travel with the westerlies from the South West to the North East across tornado alley. On average year, El Salvador doesn't experience any tornadoes on an average year which is quite the opposite of the US which experiences the most of any region in the world with an average of 1253 tornadoes per year. (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology) Below is a map of all the tornado hot spots in the world and as you can clearly see, El Salvador is very far from any of these regions. And below that is a graph of tornado count since the 50s, but it may be swayed because of advancements in technology as well as population growth have made it increasing more likely that a tornado will now be documented.
Another type of natural disaster that is slightly more prevalent in El Salvador is hurricanes. Because warm ocean waters, deep ocean layers, and the Coriolis effect are needed to form a hurricane, they form in the tropics and head east until they gain strength and head north when they reach landfall. In the United States, hurricanes generally hit the south and south east after being generated in the lower latitude tropics. These also form in other parts of the world under different names like cyclone in the Indian ocean and typhoon in the western pacific. Hurricanes are much larger and can cause more damage then tornadoes, so it is lucky that on average only 1.72 hit the US each year (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E17.html) but El Salvador's location near the equator and the land blocking it to east from the Caribbean make it experience even less hurricanes averaging 0 per year.

Daily Weather in El Salvador

This week in El Salvador, the predicted weather from Thursday the 2nd through Saturday the 4th include a high of 87 and low of 71 on Thursday. Friday it heats up with a high of 93 degrees Fahrenheit and a low of 72. And Saturday the 4th is the warmest of the 3 with a high of 94 and a low of 71. All three days will most likely be dry with a 10 percent chance of precipitation the 2nd and 20 percent the next 2 days. The average pressure for the three day period is 29.79 in. The pressure slightly decreased over the three days, but the average wind speed for the three was predicted remained mellow over the three days at 4 mph with a high of 10 mph.

As you can see by the map, the majority of clouds in the area are in Guatemala rather then El Salvador, but some low warm clouds can be seen entering the region. This is reenforces the prediction of a lack of precipitation because there are not many clouds over El Salvador but rather the surrounding countries. On this map you can also see the texture of all the mountains across El Salvador and the green areas with some vegetation as well as the beige more desert areas.

 In this Map we can see two high pressure systems over central America at a pressure of 1016 and a isobar of lower pressure a little lower at 1012 mb. Between the two highs, is where the storm that is visible in the first map is located. The change in pressure between the two along with the moist air is causing heavy precipitation and thunderstorms in Guatemala. El Salvador is lucky enough to avoid most of the bad weather in the area. 

This map shows the small amount of cloud cover creeping into El Salvador. The rest of the country appears to be rather clear which is responsible for the increase in temperature expected over the next 3 days. It is a small country without much variation in pressure keeping winds mellow and temperatures high. This satellite view reassures the prediction of limited to no precipitation, light winds, and hot moist air. Although the weather there will be nice and sunny, 94 degrees is just too hot to enjoy.

Global and Local Winds in El Salvador

With longitudes ranging from 13.1 to 14.4 and latitudes ranging from -90 to -87.9 El Salvador is a relatively small country located in the Northern Hemisphere. El Salvador's location in the Hadley cell puts it in placement to get hit by the same easterly trade winds that Hawaii experiences. Its not near to any major pressure belts because it is right between the high that is usually scene above North America and the low down at the equator. El Salvador isn't very near to any special areas because it lies right in the middle of the trade winds.
 
 As seen in the map below the north easterlies of the Hadley cell have the most impact on the weather and climate of El Salvador. Because of their location near the equator, these winds are characterized by warm moist air and that is basically what you can expect for the weather in El Salvador. All year round the country stays warm because of its location within this heated wind belt, but precipitation varies with the season. While the summers are relatively dry, the winters here are characterized by lots of rain fall rather then cold weather. These hot winds bring in large amounts of moist air that cause rainfall and thunderstorms in the mountainous and coastal regions but the more moderate temperature of the inland plateau keeps it from experiencing this precipitation as often. This region is characterized by raising air as it heads towards the doldrums and the equatorial low.

Another effect on the winds of El Salvador is the texture of the earth. Countries with mountains often experience, mountain breezes, valley breezes, katabatic winds, eddys , and Chinook winds. The small mountains of El Salvador have enough effect to cause mountain and valley breezes as well as eddys, but strong chinook or katabatic winds are not often experienced here. Additionally because of its coast line, some areas can experience both sea breeze and land breeze conditions. The variation of land in El Salvador allows it to experience a few different winds along with the trade winds that bring about the offshore flow perfect for El Salvador's great waves.


 (http://www.climatetheory.net/)
 

Typical Weather and Tourism in El Salvador

El Salvador is located so close to the equator that the winter solstice isn't to extreme, but it happens every year on the 21st of December. This day is usually quite warm as well compared to mainland America during this time of year with an daily high peaking at 94 degrees and the daily high having a minimum for the month was 88 degrees. And rain will rarely be there to cool you down with a chance of rain usually under 10 percent for this time of year but the majority of the precipitation will come from thunder storms.
(weatherspark.com)

On the other side of the calender we find the summer solstice occurring on the 21st of June. This solstice can be a little bit cooler than the winter solstice, but not by much. June averages with daily highs ranging from 93 to 84 degrees Fahrenheit, which is hardly any fluctuation from the winter solstice. The main difference is that you are much more likely to get some rain during this solstice with the chance of rain usually between 60 and 70 percent for the month mainly consisting of thunderstorms. 
(weatherspark.com)

Next we have the spring equinox occurring and bringing in even hotter weather then the last two. The spring equinox is March 20th which is a time of year marked by some more hot weather. The daily highs were recorded to fluctuate between a max of 96 and the minimum of 89. This also a relatively dry day on average because it is just before the beginning of the rainy season so the chance of rain is around 10 percent most likely in the form of thunderstorms.
(weatherspark.com)

The autumn equinox in El Salvador comes once a year on the 23rd of September. The temperatures of this month like the others, are quite high but nothing unusual for this part of the world with a max high of 92 and a min of 83 for the month of September. And much like during the summer solstice this is an extremely wet time of year where you are almost guaranteed rain with an above 70 percent chance of precipitation for the whole month most likely in the form of thunder storms.
(weatherspark.com)

If traveling to El Salvador, I recommend to visit between the Winter Solstice and the Spring Equinox because the weather is moderate and relatively dry during this time. If you like being out doors, this is a great place to visit with beautiful hiking in the mountains as well as great water with some amazing waves to surf. This season is the least effected by storms and bad weather so that it why it is a better time to visit, but you have to be ready to deal with the heat. If you need some nature to nurture you, El Salvador is a great place to visit!






(http://soulsafarissurftravel.com/wp-content/uploads/el-salvador_1599866c.jpg)

Temperature Controls in the City of San Salvador in El Salvador

El Salvador's capitol city of San Salvador is located at the latitude and longitude of 13.7 degrees North and 89.2 degrees West. Here the hottest month of the year is May coming in with an average daily high temperature of 92 degrees Fahrenheit , and October is the coolest with an average daily high of 88  degrees Fahrenheit. This information was found at https://weatherspark.com/averages/32651/San-Salvador-La-Paz-El-Salvador  and shows just how moderate El Salvador's climate is with an annual range of just 4 degrees F. This lack of temperature fluctuation is a result of the Pacific Ocean. With the majority of weather coming in from the west the air that travels into El Salvador is held at a much more constant temperature over the ocean then if it would have been traveling over land due to differential heating. The consistent temperature of the ocean regulates the temperature of the air above it keeping all the air blowing into El Salvador relatively consistent and giving the country a climate pattern to match. Additionally the seasonal migration of the sun does not effect El Salvador's temperature. Because of its short distance from the equator, the length of day and suns direction does not fluctuate much throughout the year causing very little climate change between seasons. By having relatively constant direct for equal amounts of the day year round, El Salvador does not experience the temperature fluctuations of the countries closer to the poles.

Although El Salvador has a rather moderate climate now, its location makes it very susceptible to changes is ocean currents, temperatures, and sea levels. El Salvador's main weather regulator is the Pacific Ocean, so minor change in this massive body of water would have a great effect on this country. If currents changed and it could greatly effect water temperature and with hot waters would cause more viscous storms or cold waters could dramatically decrease the average temperatures of this area. But a more immediate danger is the destruction of farm land by raising sea levels, according to The Independent over 1000 feet of farm land has been covered by the ocean since 2005. With sea levels expected to raise, farm land will continue to fall victim to the ocean putting a major strain on the economy as well as the food supply in El Salvador.